* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 77 76 71 64 59 53 52 48 48 43 V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 77 76 71 64 59 53 52 48 48 43 V (KT) LGE mod 80 79 78 76 74 70 65 60 56 54 52 51 49 SHEAR (KTS) 6 7 9 9 10 15 20 17 16 10 16 20 25 SHEAR DIR 24 25 18 16 27 14 19 33 20 11 330 299 294 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 125 123 122 118 114 109 105 102 101 99 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 103 102 101 97 94 91 87 85 85 84 82 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 36 38 37 36 37 34 38 37 44 50 56 56 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 19 18 17 19 17 19 18 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR -72 -67 -79 -82 -72 -103 -113 -116 -83 -51 -21 24 48 200 MB DIV 21 10 -11 1 16 9 -3 19 18 17 3 4 11 LAND (KM) 1291 1318 1344 1359 1344 1317 1272 1201 1110 1047 1010 966 931 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.5 30.8 31.4 32.1 32.9 33.8 34.5 35.1 35.9 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.5 62.4 61.9 61.0 60.0 58.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 5 4 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -31. -34. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -19. -25. -26. -30. -30. -35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -16. -21. -27. -28. -32. -32. -37. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY