* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 54 63 71 75 75 73 68 65 62 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 54 63 71 75 75 73 68 65 62 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 43 46 52 59 64 66 66 64 60 54 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 10 9 11 11 9 6 4 11 10 17 14 SHEAR DIR 52 63 87 79 92 90 91 77 92 94 140 156 180 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.7 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.4 25.9 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 158 157 152 143 140 133 127 122 123 123 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 9 8 7 11 8 9 7 6 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 84 81 81 82 80 72 74 67 68 60 61 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 37 43 37 49 28 20 18 16 9 5 -3 200 MB DIV 46 68 73 54 33 40 19 12 0 12 -13 -2 4 LAND (KM) 341 310 298 296 295 311 354 414 524 591 612 723 883 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.5 99.5 100.5 101.5 103.6 105.7 107.6 109.5 111.2 112.9 114.7 116.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 22. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 32. 36. 38. 37. 33. 29. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 19. 28. 36. 40. 40. 38. 33. 30. 27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 5.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY