* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP992008 07/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 8 4 5 11 5 10 8 15 14 22 17 SHEAR DIR 74 29 54 64 29 46 40 101 165 172 190 183 180 SST (C) 25.2 24.4 23.7 23.4 23.1 21.8 21.0 20.3 19.8 19.4 19.1 18.6 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 108 100 96 93 79 71 63 59 59 59 58 58 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 78 73 72 70 62 61 54 49 43 38 31 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 21 7 0 -14 -37 -44 -45 -59 -40 -41 -31 -18 200 MB DIV 0 -4 4 -15 -8 -11 -25 -9 5 -4 -19 -9 -11 LAND (KM) 343 331 368 415 441 537 596 591 612 627 621 607 597 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.8 25.9 27.0 27.8 28.7 29.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.9 113.0 114.0 115.0 117.0 118.6 119.9 120.8 121.3 121.8 122.1 122.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -20. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -16. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -12. -19. -26. -31. -36. -41. -45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -8. -16. -24. -30. -34. -38. -43. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP992008 INVEST 07/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992008 INVEST 07/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY