* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/12/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 60 58 57 53 49 45 44 43 46 42 42 V (KT) LAND 65 61 60 58 57 53 49 45 44 43 46 42 42 V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 58 57 57 56 54 52 50 49 48 46 45 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 9 11 12 16 14 10 16 22 20 24 20 SHEAR DIR 22 10 354 2 357 22 30 6 352 333 282 320 282 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.6 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 123 121 118 113 108 104 101 100 99 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 102 102 102 100 97 94 91 87 84 83 84 84 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 37 37 35 38 36 35 35 38 45 51 53 50 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 18 19 20 18 18 17 17 18 25 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -67 -81 -80 -91 -114 -118 -114 -86 -30 42 81 96 200 MB DIV 0 -19 -1 1 14 13 1 15 41 9 45 -16 16 LAND (KM) 1312 1334 1355 1354 1339 1312 1257 1169 1065 1006 1010 1039 1079 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.6 30.9 31.5 32.3 33.3 34.4 35.2 35.5 35.8 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.5 62.2 61.6 60.8 59.9 58.6 57.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 6 5 4 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 3. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -20. -16. -21. -20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -5. -7. -8. -12. -16. -20. -21. -22. -19. -23. -23. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/12/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/12/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY