* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/12/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 58 63 72 76 75 71 66 62 60 57 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 58 63 72 76 75 71 66 62 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 58 61 62 60 59 57 54 50 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 11 11 12 17 14 9 5 7 9 15 11 SHEAR DIR 74 71 67 76 82 95 97 98 104 105 141 158 163 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 153 149 143 138 133 129 124 124 121 121 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 83 81 81 79 74 73 68 67 63 61 57 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 44 45 43 39 39 22 25 20 26 23 11 11 200 MB DIV 67 72 52 40 44 21 10 20 -9 10 -2 2 4 LAND (KM) 362 365 368 383 375 427 506 599 650 671 783 917 1019 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 17.8 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 99.8 100.9 102.0 103.1 104.2 106.4 108.5 110.0 111.4 113.1 115.3 117.0 118.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 11 9 7 8 9 10 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 383 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 28. 28. 27. 23. 20. 17. 14. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 13. 18. 23. 32. 36. 35. 31. 26. 22. 20. 17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/12/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 64% is 5.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/12/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED