* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/13/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 60 58 54 50 45 43 38 39 38 33 V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 60 58 54 50 45 43 38 39 38 33 V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 59 58 57 54 51 49 48 46 44 42 41 SHEAR (KTS) 10 13 16 16 17 17 8 14 27 29 32 28 20 SHEAR DIR 360 339 350 356 10 28 36 12 7 355 314 320 278 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.2 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 124 123 121 113 108 106 104 102 102 101 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 102 103 102 101 95 90 89 87 86 85 86 86 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 8 5 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 36 36 35 35 32 36 35 40 45 55 55 58 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 20 20 19 18 21 20 24 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -85 -85 -99 -112 -126 -135 -111 -80 -13 47 76 89 200 MB DIV -19 8 -4 0 -1 -16 18 8 22 11 1 17 -7 LAND (KM) 1318 1339 1360 1366 1347 1267 1188 1127 1085 1084 1115 1170 1243 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.7 31.1 32.2 33.1 33.8 34.5 35.0 35.3 35.3 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.4 62.4 62.4 62.4 62.4 62.5 62.3 61.7 60.6 59.3 58.0 56.5 54.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 2. 0. 4. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -20. -24. -24. -24. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -15. -20. -22. -27. -26. -27. -32. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/13/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/13/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY