* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/13/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 65 69 76 77 74 70 63 60 56 52 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 65 69 76 77 74 70 63 60 56 52 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 59 63 66 71 72 69 64 60 56 52 47 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 11 10 12 12 12 7 9 7 11 11 18 SHEAR DIR 72 59 79 87 87 104 109 138 72 100 151 135 158 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 154 148 145 139 131 126 123 122 120 116 117 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 81 80 76 72 69 73 65 69 62 62 58 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 43 43 39 43 31 32 27 23 22 12 -1 27 200 MB DIV 54 46 50 43 29 -2 0 3 0 -23 -1 -10 -1 LAND (KM) 319 308 295 300 330 407 537 580 615 664 768 876 1017 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.3 17.0 17.5 17.8 17.8 18.1 18.5 18.5 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 100.9 102.2 103.4 104.6 105.7 107.9 109.8 111.2 112.3 113.8 115.7 117.4 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 6 8 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 23. 24. 22. 18. 13. 10. 6. 2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 15. 19. 26. 27. 24. 20. 13. 10. 6. 3. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/13/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/13/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY