* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/13/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 62 60 57 53 49 47 44 42 40 34 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 62 60 57 53 49 47 44 42 40 34 V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 65 64 64 60 56 53 51 49 48 46 45 SHEAR (KTS) 7 10 14 18 16 11 12 20 28 31 40 23 20 SHEAR DIR 342 2 349 4 23 27 24 8 6 358 341 328 322 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.1 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.6 25.1 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 127 124 121 113 107 104 101 101 105 105 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 102 105 104 102 95 90 88 86 86 89 88 87 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 35 35 34 31 31 34 38 44 53 56 58 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 20 19 17 16 17 18 20 21 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR -87 -83 -97 -114 -117 -124 -129 -108 -63 13 96 123 115 200 MB DIV 8 -9 0 4 14 4 6 30 10 18 10 8 -17 LAND (KM) 1304 1314 1323 1342 1300 1217 1129 1031 979 1039 1231 1315 1349 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.5 31.0 32.3 33.4 34.6 35.5 35.6 34.6 34.2 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.6 62.6 62.8 63.0 63.3 63.0 62.1 60.7 59.0 57.0 55.5 54.5 STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 3 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. -30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -18. -21. -23. -25. -31. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/13/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/13/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY