* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/13/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 28 35 41 47 53 56 61 64 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 28 35 41 47 53 56 61 64 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 33 38 44 49 SHEAR (KTS) 12 11 15 14 10 5 13 9 7 10 9 12 10 SHEAR DIR 83 76 92 129 139 167 180 196 153 162 150 174 197 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 128 125 123 121 122 124 127 128 130 131 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 125 122 120 118 121 125 128 129 132 133 135 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.0 -55.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -55.0 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 77 79 71 71 65 67 63 64 58 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 7 17 30 43 51 50 61 69 73 86 85 200 MB DIV 53 37 41 80 118 96 66 58 82 74 70 85 42 LAND (KM) 1360 1365 1375 1398 1415 1363 1200 1034 857 728 630 455 185 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.6 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.4 11.2 10.9 LONG(DEG W) 36.4 37.2 37.9 38.6 39.2 40.7 42.7 45.3 48.2 51.1 53.9 56.6 59.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 7 8 9 11 14 14 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 19 18 15 9 14 18 29 29 38 42 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 20. 27. 34. 39. 43. 47. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 21. 27. 33. 36. 41. 44. 46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/13/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/13/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY