* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/13/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 70 74 73 71 67 63 59 56 51 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 70 74 73 71 67 63 59 56 51 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 66 68 70 70 67 63 59 54 50 47 SHEAR (KTS) 17 15 13 14 12 11 12 9 16 16 17 11 10 SHEAR DIR 50 61 70 80 84 96 127 121 127 136 148 136 133 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 148 144 142 138 131 127 125 126 126 123 122 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 10 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 82 78 74 71 73 69 68 64 65 58 60 56 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 8 8 7 6 7 8 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 28 34 41 24 27 22 25 20 33 30 59 200 MB DIV 27 35 28 39 29 4 5 12 -13 10 16 15 34 LAND (KM) 335 330 326 347 369 479 591 641 687 767 882 992 1071 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.5 104.6 105.6 106.6 108.6 110.2 111.5 112.8 114.3 116.0 117.5 118.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 9 7 6 7 8 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 17. 15. 12. 8. 4. 1. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 11. 15. 19. 18. 16. 12. 8. 4. 1. -4. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/13/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/13/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY