* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/13/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 51 50 48 48 46 46 43 46 42 43 41 V (KT) LAND 55 52 51 50 48 48 46 46 43 46 42 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 51 50 50 51 50 50 49 48 48 48 47 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 7 11 8 5 10 17 19 24 31 23 14 SHEAR DIR 351 4 360 22 35 351 348 360 346 318 322 306 302 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.8 25.9 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 125 123 120 111 105 102 101 101 104 105 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 104 104 103 101 94 89 86 85 85 88 90 91 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.1 -53.7 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 11 9 8 5 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 36 36 33 32 33 33 42 47 58 59 61 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 20 18 22 20 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR -81 -92 -101 -114 -114 -120 -101 -78 -23 54 112 136 123 200 MB DIV -11 6 10 0 -7 15 8 32 15 40 1 31 33 LAND (KM) 1302 1320 1339 1310 1265 1191 1077 992 948 1004 1148 1272 1372 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.7 31.2 32.5 33.9 34.9 35.6 35.6 35.0 34.5 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.7 62.8 63.1 63.3 63.5 63.1 62.4 61.3 59.8 57.9 55.9 53.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 5 6 7 6 6 5 7 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. 1. -1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -8. -12. -11. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. -12. -9. -13. -12. -14. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/13/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/13/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY