* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/13/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 48 58 66 73 78 82 82 80 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 48 58 66 73 78 82 82 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 43 50 59 67 73 51 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 11 9 9 9 7 2 8 6 9 16 13 SHEAR DIR 70 88 119 109 96 114 109 111 47 58 92 133 109 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 126 123 122 123 127 132 135 138 140 141 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 124 120 119 122 128 134 139 143 146 148 144 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -55.0 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 9 8 700-500 MB RH 76 73 78 79 75 71 72 68 69 64 67 67 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 8 9 10 9 11 12 13 14 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 8 23 36 35 40 53 60 73 71 35 28 200 MB DIV 34 47 83 114 106 86 52 52 62 74 42 41 0 LAND (KM) 1347 1356 1372 1368 1351 1190 986 801 595 428 322 71 -70 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.8 9.4 8.8 8.3 8.0 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 38.1 38.9 39.7 40.4 42.2 44.6 47.2 50.1 52.9 55.7 58.5 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 10 12 14 14 14 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 19 14 11 17 23 36 36 34 43 4 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 22. 32. 41. 49. 56. 60. 59. 57. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 17. 24. 33. 41. 48. 53. 57. 57. 55. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/13/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/13/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY