* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 50 50 49 50 49 52 53 55 55 51 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 50 50 49 50 49 52 53 55 55 51 V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 52 52 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 6 4 3 2 8 11 16 23 17 20 11 SHEAR DIR 28 38 21 56 65 64 336 347 307 287 264 289 279 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.4 24.6 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 121 117 113 106 102 100 99 99 100 101 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 102 102 99 96 90 86 84 83 84 85 87 89 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 6 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 35 31 31 33 33 37 39 51 55 56 51 50 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 18 19 20 23 24 27 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR -96 -103 -121 -124 -126 -129 -77 -27 27 88 111 122 86 200 MB DIV 16 7 -10 -8 15 20 28 11 32 21 37 -13 55 LAND (KM) 1324 1307 1270 1223 1178 1066 963 915 922 996 1087 1201 1333 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 30.5 30.9 31.6 32.2 33.8 35.1 35.8 36.1 36.0 35.9 35.4 34.7 LONG(DEG W) 63.0 63.2 63.4 63.6 63.8 63.5 62.7 61.7 60.6 59.1 57.2 55.2 53.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 7 7 8 6 5 5 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -1. -1. 1. 1. -2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -3. -2. 0. 0. -4. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY