* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 41 49 57 67 74 78 80 80 80 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 41 49 57 67 74 78 80 68 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 34 38 44 52 61 69 65 41 SHEAR (KTS) 10 11 11 11 10 7 7 5 9 9 14 10 14 SHEAR DIR 84 94 88 70 95 123 89 44 81 85 107 124 97 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 123 122 122 125 128 132 133 135 138 133 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 122 120 121 125 130 135 136 139 143 137 128 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -53.9 -54.9 -54.1 -54.8 -54.5 -55.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 7 11 700-500 MB RH 73 77 77 75 71 72 67 70 66 65 66 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 6 9 9 7 9 9 11 14 14 14 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 0 11 21 37 41 42 53 75 76 70 73 52 32 200 MB DIV 55 76 108 82 88 57 54 67 57 49 49 20 6 LAND (KM) 1370 1390 1378 1314 1242 1056 874 679 541 423 209 -22 -80 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.6 LONG(DEG W) 38.2 39.1 40.0 41.0 41.9 44.2 46.9 49.8 52.7 55.6 58.4 61.3 64.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 13 9 12 18 30 32 37 46 46 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 30. 41. 51. 56. 58. 58. 58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 16. 24. 32. 42. 49. 53. 55. 55. 55. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY