* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 58 58 58 58 56 52 49 48 45 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 58 58 58 58 56 52 49 48 45 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 56 56 56 56 55 53 51 48 45 42 40 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 15 13 11 12 10 12 14 14 9 9 4 SHEAR DIR 75 75 98 93 92 115 120 116 121 136 106 101 52 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 141 139 136 132 127 126 125 123 120 117 112 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 7 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 74 76 76 72 70 67 69 60 63 58 59 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 35 28 24 20 21 35 25 40 28 37 14 200 MB DIV 29 32 36 15 7 -4 7 9 8 -1 -12 -3 -8 LAND (KM) 351 392 430 471 527 651 713 785 889 1003 1147 1251 1340 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.5 17.3 17.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 106.0 107.2 108.1 109.0 110.6 112.7 114.6 116.3 118.0 119.9 121.3 122.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 11 9 8 9 10 9 8 9 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -3. -5. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -6. -7. -10. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY