* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 07/13/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 34 39 49 58 64 67 68 68 70 70 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 34 39 49 58 64 67 68 68 70 70 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 33 35 37 39 SHEAR (KTS) 19 21 16 14 13 12 9 9 13 18 18 16 14 SHEAR DIR 70 78 79 81 77 69 64 45 47 34 18 15 342 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 144 146 148 153 156 154 153 147 142 139 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 82 85 84 86 84 84 83 83 82 82 78 80 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 82 84 83 69 67 52 31 37 25 22 30 24 200 MB DIV 85 99 86 70 80 96 111 97 107 84 49 35 30 LAND (KM) 404 432 462 492 520 584 645 607 575 547 463 442 436 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.9 10.6 11.7 12.9 14.4 15.6 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 89.5 90.4 91.3 92.1 92.9 94.6 96.6 98.9 101.2 103.3 105.0 106.5 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 9 11 12 12 12 10 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 30. 37. 43. 45. 45. 46. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 38. 44. 47. 48. 48. 50. 50. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 07/13/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 07/13/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY