* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/14/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 54 55 54 54 54 56 60 57 52 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 54 55 54 54 54 56 60 57 52 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 55 54 54 53 53 54 54 54 53 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 4 6 4 3 12 14 21 22 17 16 15 SHEAR DIR 21 23 42 57 38 348 349 348 322 333 278 260 248 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.7 24.9 24.6 24.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 118 114 109 104 101 99 101 103 101 100 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 100 97 93 89 85 83 85 87 85 84 84 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -53.3 -52.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 9 7 4 5 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 34 32 33 34 33 39 48 53 54 53 52 55 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 20 21 24 24 27 33 31 30 850 MB ENV VOR -116 -123 -128 -138 -137 -98 -51 42 96 146 160 110 76 200 MB DIV -3 -4 -7 11 13 21 20 33 30 16 12 -7 5 LAND (KM) 1326 1286 1247 1195 1128 1032 915 936 1055 1148 1174 1238 1288 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.9 31.4 32.2 33.0 34.4 35.8 36.0 35.3 35.0 35.4 35.3 35.1 LONG(DEG W) 63.1 63.3 63.4 63.6 63.8 63.1 61.7 60.5 59.3 57.9 56.0 54.5 53.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 8 8 7 5 6 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 10. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 3. -1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 2. -3. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/14/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/14/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY