* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/14/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 62 63 64 66 62 60 54 50 48 45 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 62 63 64 66 62 60 54 50 48 45 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 56 56 56 55 54 52 49 46 43 40 38 SHEAR (KTS) 14 14 15 12 10 12 12 15 17 15 13 9 8 SHEAR DIR 67 94 93 85 93 122 110 107 118 117 111 96 97 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.7 25.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 139 137 134 130 128 128 126 123 120 114 109 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 80 79 73 69 73 65 68 67 65 61 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 8 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 34 35 28 22 15 21 30 36 50 53 52 51 40 200 MB DIV 32 43 29 11 -3 1 -7 3 -12 -27 -32 -36 3 LAND (KM) 439 475 521 578 642 736 845 962 1098 1226 1389 1543 1696 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.4 16.5 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 107.3 108.3 109.3 110.2 112.2 114.2 116.2 118.2 120.2 122.2 124.2 126.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 3. 2. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 6. 4. -1. -5. -8. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 7. 5. -1. -5. -7. -10. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/14/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/14/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY