* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 07/14/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 33 38 48 57 63 65 64 64 65 65 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 33 38 48 57 63 65 64 64 65 65 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 28 31 33 34 35 35 SHEAR (KTS) 15 17 17 16 17 13 10 15 19 16 17 14 21 SHEAR DIR 81 75 62 76 81 70 50 49 53 64 67 87 82 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 147 149 155 158 157 154 146 140 136 132 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.3 -53.4 -54.3 -53.5 -54.4 -53.9 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 9 7 9 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 87 84 82 84 84 82 78 83 80 80 75 76 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 7 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 71 73 68 66 73 70 52 38 26 1 -1 -1 -15 200 MB DIV 101 76 73 77 89 55 75 70 72 30 36 15 16 LAND (KM) 385 396 396 404 415 471 425 423 454 467 528 621 733 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.5 12.1 12.9 13.8 14.7 15.3 15.6 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 90.5 91.3 92.1 92.9 93.6 95.6 97.9 100.5 103.2 105.6 107.6 109.3 110.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 11 12 14 13 11 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 29. 33. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 10. 15. 24. 34. 40. 44. 42. 43. 43. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 13. 18. 28. 37. 43. 45. 44. 44. 45. 45. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 07/14/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 07/14/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY