* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/14/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 53 52 52 52 52 54 56 55 53 46 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 53 52 52 52 52 54 56 55 53 46 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 54 53 53 53 54 56 56 55 52 SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 8 9 12 4 8 16 23 18 21 28 24 SHEAR DIR 29 74 60 50 89 50 332 335 310 301 262 256 266 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.1 24.7 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 121 117 113 109 106 102 100 99 103 105 105 102 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 99 96 93 90 87 84 84 87 89 88 87 84 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -52.7 -52.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 29 33 34 32 37 46 51 54 50 51 48 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 18 17 17 18 19 21 23 24 25 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR -124 -130 -140 -141 -125 -84 -26 51 99 148 140 98 17 200 MB DIV -11 -24 3 9 28 27 14 27 21 44 -17 -23 -5 LAND (KM) 1270 1231 1195 1140 1066 944 893 962 1102 1220 1270 1282 1191 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.6 32.2 33.0 33.8 35.3 36.1 35.9 35.0 34.5 34.6 35.1 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 63.4 63.5 63.6 63.6 63.5 62.6 61.4 60.1 58.9 57.4 55.6 53.9 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 7 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 1. -1. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 0. -2. -9. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/14/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/14/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY