* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/14/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 68 66 65 64 60 57 49 46 38 34 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 68 66 65 64 60 57 49 46 38 34 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 71 72 72 69 65 61 56 51 47 42 38 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 9 8 11 10 11 11 14 13 14 15 10 SHEAR DIR 72 89 88 89 102 112 83 112 137 135 129 128 137 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 135 133 130 126 126 124 121 117 113 106 101 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 77 73 68 69 68 68 62 63 59 55 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 10 9 10 11 11 10 8 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 34 30 26 24 22 33 35 33 50 41 45 19 23 200 MB DIV 47 34 21 2 -6 2 1 0 -6 -6 -39 -33 0 LAND (KM) 456 510 577 651 676 726 845 988 1117 1251 1372 1525 1658 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.6 109.6 110.6 111.6 113.6 115.6 117.6 119.6 121.4 122.9 124.7 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. -2. -2. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 4. -1. -10. -15. -22. -26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -16. -19. -27. -31. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/14/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/14/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY