* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 07/14/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 37 46 56 61 65 69 71 72 73 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 37 46 56 61 65 69 71 72 73 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 29 33 36 39 41 42 SHEAR (KTS) 17 17 14 11 11 10 9 13 10 10 9 10 7 SHEAR DIR 70 63 63 70 71 84 58 58 55 31 43 83 121 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.0 27.6 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 148 150 153 158 159 157 152 144 139 137 133 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 82 84 77 82 79 79 77 78 75 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 72 67 65 66 74 62 54 36 21 13 19 20 27 200 MB DIV 82 76 81 87 67 57 68 55 25 29 40 43 12 LAND (KM) 358 361 355 359 376 377 348 374 405 435 494 552 633 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.4 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 90.8 91.6 92.4 93.3 94.1 96.1 98.5 101.0 103.4 105.7 107.5 108.9 110.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 11 13 12 12 10 8 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 23. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 23. 33. 40. 45. 48. 50. 51. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 17. 26. 36. 41. 45. 49. 51. 52. 53. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 07/14/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 07/14/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED