* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/14/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 47 51 56 61 64 66 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 41 47 51 56 61 64 66 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 37 40 43 47 51 55 57 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 9 10 8 14 16 20 16 9 18 20 29 SHEAR DIR 78 103 163 198 222 232 281 268 302 307 327 321 329 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.3 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 124 125 125 130 138 141 141 142 141 144 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 124 125 126 133 141 144 143 145 144 147 151 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 71 65 62 61 63 60 60 58 61 54 51 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 40 34 46 51 50 31 21 20 2 6 1 -8 200 MB DIV 36 51 28 15 3 3 -9 -2 19 5 16 2 19 LAND (KM) 1309 1232 1167 1093 1019 910 785 505 413 349 300 185 66 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.3 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 42.0 43.3 44.5 46.0 47.5 50.9 54.4 57.9 61.4 64.9 68.7 72.5 76.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 19 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 11 13 16 23 31 43 50 67 54 74 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 22. 27. 32. 37. 40. 42. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 22. 26. 31. 36. 39. 41. 39. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/14/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/14/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY