* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/14/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 77 77 77 77 72 66 58 50 45 40 36 V (KT) LAND 70 75 77 77 77 77 72 66 58 50 45 40 36 V (KT) LGE mod 70 75 78 78 77 73 67 61 57 53 49 45 41 SHEAR (KTS) 10 12 10 12 13 11 11 8 11 12 8 7 4 SHEAR DIR 77 82 85 80 110 89 84 124 128 138 129 150 180 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.6 24.7 24.3 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 133 131 129 128 125 122 121 119 110 105 102 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 72 67 68 69 63 64 59 59 53 50 48 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 14 12 11 10 8 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 33 32 28 26 28 44 42 51 47 51 46 27 13 200 MB DIV 41 17 -1 6 3 5 -2 -5 -28 -27 -28 -28 0 LAND (KM) 552 626 707 751 769 862 1020 1133 1230 1367 1541 1670 1773 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.7 110.8 111.8 112.8 115.1 117.4 119.2 120.6 122.3 124.5 126.2 127.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 11 10 8 8 9 10 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 3. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 4. -2. -10. -18. -23. -28. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 2. -4. -12. -20. -24. -30. -34. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/14/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/14/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY