* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 07/14/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 34 44 51 55 56 59 62 64 65 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 34 44 51 55 56 59 62 64 65 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 27 29 31 33 35 37 SHEAR (KTS) 16 15 12 12 10 5 10 16 9 9 9 10 13 SHEAR DIR 64 69 72 81 93 100 48 31 358 341 279 239 225 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 143 145 148 151 152 151 149 142 137 135 133 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -53.5 -54.2 -53.6 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 9 6 8 7 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 84 81 81 83 81 78 80 78 78 75 78 73 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 71 73 75 81 61 53 33 5 7 16 25 20 200 MB DIV 80 81 98 67 67 88 69 53 35 51 24 29 13 LAND (KM) 367 366 363 370 396 401 374 401 427 459 513 582 679 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.6 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.7 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 91.0 91.8 92.6 93.5 94.4 96.5 99.1 101.6 103.9 105.8 107.5 108.9 110.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 12 13 12 11 9 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 29. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 14. 24. 31. 35. 36. 39. 42. 44. 45. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 07/14/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 07/14/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY