* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/14/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 64 65 66 67 65 65 61 58 55 49 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 64 65 66 67 65 65 61 58 55 49 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 64 64 63 63 64 65 64 60 55 51 SHEAR (KTS) 7 6 4 3 4 11 14 28 27 26 31 24 30 SHEAR DIR 33 41 98 198 256 308 305 316 322 294 269 295 334 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.7 26.3 25.6 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 120 118 115 111 112 115 120 116 110 108 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 104 101 99 96 91 92 96 100 98 94 92 89 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -55.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 8 6 4 4 5 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 35 35 40 44 47 56 60 55 49 50 47 46 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 18 18 19 20 21 22 20 21 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR -129 -135 -110 -92 -78 -19 47 99 122 100 37 -18 -10 200 MB DIV 0 -5 16 32 39 27 25 5 22 -13 29 29 -1 LAND (KM) 1135 1083 1014 975 910 866 938 1070 1210 1258 1190 1036 889 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.4 34.2 34.9 35.6 36.3 35.9 35.1 34.4 34.6 35.9 37.4 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 64.1 64.0 63.8 63.3 62.7 61.6 60.7 59.4 57.8 56.0 54.2 52.2 50.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 4 5 7 7 8 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 3 3 4 2 0 0 4 6 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 3. 0. -4. -9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 5. 1. -2. -5. -11. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/14/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/14/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY