* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/14/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 44 48 53 57 60 64 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 44 48 53 57 60 64 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 40 43 46 51 57 62 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 10 6 7 14 18 19 12 8 16 14 17 SHEAR DIR 126 158 228 264 280 266 278 295 325 349 355 349 332 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.4 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 125 124 125 131 139 140 141 142 141 145 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 124 124 125 132 141 143 142 144 142 146 150 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.4 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 61 58 63 55 59 54 51 49 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 27 34 39 35 41 13 36 21 10 8 10 5 200 MB DIV 35 26 11 8 -2 -2 -2 -8 15 16 3 -5 20 LAND (KM) 1228 1164 1108 1043 1001 928 733 486 488 271 213 137 24 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.5 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 44.6 45.9 47.4 48.9 51.9 55.2 58.6 62.0 65.4 69.0 72.5 76.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 18 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 18 20 22 43 58 61 59 67 58 81 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 14. 19. 23. 28. 34. 37. 41. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 19. 23. 28. 32. 35. 39. 40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/14/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/14/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY