* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/14/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 77 75 74 70 62 55 46 38 31 29 28 V (KT) LAND 75 77 77 75 74 70 62 55 46 38 31 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 75 77 78 76 74 68 61 56 51 47 43 39 35 SHEAR (KTS) 11 15 16 16 15 17 12 12 12 15 16 18 14 SHEAR DIR 67 67 72 97 97 100 114 135 115 138 129 145 137 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 133 131 130 128 125 122 117 110 110 111 111 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 70 68 70 68 66 60 56 52 45 43 44 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 11 12 12 10 9 7 6 4 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 4 11 24 30 28 52 43 48 28 33 7 200 MB DIV 24 3 7 6 5 -3 -15 -40 -19 -20 -39 -18 -10 LAND (KM) 606 678 752 788 806 904 1058 1192 1361 1515 1675 1823 1980 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.1 16.9 16.3 16.1 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.2 111.1 112.2 113.2 115.6 118.0 120.3 122.5 124.2 125.6 127.4 129.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 7 8 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -1. -5. -13. -20. -28. -36. -43. -45. -46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 2. 0. -1. -5. -13. -20. -29. -37. -44. -46. -47. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/14/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/14/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY