* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * TEST EP892008 07/14/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 17 20 24 V (KT) LAND 0 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 18 20 21 22 21 15 13 14 14 19 20 22 19 SHEAR DIR 141 136 131 129 136 157 150 164 179 188 194 192 202 SST (C) 24.4 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.8 25.1 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.5 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 105 105 105 106 109 112 118 120 120 117 114 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.2 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 20 20 20 18 16 15 14 13 14 14 16 17 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 19 36 41 37 38 42 33 35 21 11 -12 -9 200 MB DIV -20 -17 -14 -27 -36 -15 3 8 -13 -13 -11 -1 -11 LAND (KM) 1735 1699 1664 1630 1596 1519 1427 1337 1227 1096 954 821 690 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 139.0 139.4 139.7 140.1 140.4 141.2 142.2 143.2 144.5 145.9 147.5 149.1 150.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -9. -6. -2. 2. 5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -4. 2. 5. 9. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP892008 TEST 07/14/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 36.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP892008 TEST 07/14/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY