* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 07/14/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 33 38 50 58 64 65 65 68 69 68 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 33 38 50 58 64 65 65 68 69 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 13 14 13 11 17 15 16 17 21 20 17 SHEAR DIR 73 75 78 93 101 96 73 56 48 59 69 79 88 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 142 144 148 151 149 148 148 144 141 138 135 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 84 84 87 85 84 85 82 83 78 77 76 75 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 67 66 69 70 57 43 37 22 16 23 38 47 49 200 MB DIV 85 114 93 80 86 100 101 99 70 59 82 51 22 LAND (KM) 477 499 524 561 600 576 601 641 676 748 816 893 946 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.8 13.3 13.5 13.5 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 92.3 93.2 94.0 95.0 95.9 98.4 101.1 103.6 106.1 108.1 109.6 110.7 111.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 11 13 13 13 11 9 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 10. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 34. 41. 44. 44. 46. 46. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 13. 18. 30. 38. 44. 45. 45. 48. 49. 48. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 07/14/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 07/14/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY