* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/15/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 64 64 66 68 67 67 65 61 55 50 V (KT) LAND 60 61 63 64 64 66 68 67 67 65 61 55 50 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 63 63 62 64 66 67 65 61 56 53 SHEAR (KTS) 8 6 4 2 8 12 17 28 18 17 22 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 30 80 210 308 318 7 319 322 279 280 245 210 N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.7 26.9 26.8 26.2 25.5 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 118 116 114 114 120 122 121 115 109 107 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 101 98 96 93 94 100 101 100 96 92 91 88 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 5 6 6 6 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 39 42 47 53 58 52 50 47 47 42 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 19 19 19 22 24 24 24 25 25 24 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -133 -111 -85 -86 -66 13 71 144 143 53 8 -16 N/A 200 MB DIV -11 8 30 48 54 15 26 18 11 -6 -17 2 N/A LAND (KM) 1085 1040 997 965 935 962 1100 1230 1307 1280 1166 1037 961 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 34.1 34.7 35.1 35.5 35.5 34.6 34.0 34.0 34.7 36.2 37.4 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 63.9 63.6 63.2 62.7 62.1 61.2 59.9 58.2 56.5 55.0 53.7 52.0 49.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 5 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 3 3 2 3 8 7 8 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. 8. 9. 7. 3. -3. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 7. 7. 5. 1. -5. -10. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/15/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/15/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY