* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/15/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 40 45 51 55 59 63 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 40 45 51 55 59 63 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 36 39 43 49 56 63 SHEAR (KTS) 3 5 9 10 12 23 16 16 5 15 9 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 135 238 281 292 276 295 285 318 300 338 42 1 N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 126 128 134 140 140 140 142 140 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 125 126 128 135 142 142 143 146 142 145 146 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.1 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 -54.5 -54.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 11 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 60 61 59 57 60 54 55 49 51 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 19 16 19 6 14 26 10 15 16 17 N/A 200 MB DIV 22 4 4 0 -11 -25 -14 9 6 -6 -11 10 N/A LAND (KM) 1134 1071 1007 959 926 882 609 386 411 358 290 233 141 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 44.6 46.0 47.4 48.9 50.3 53.2 56.3 59.6 62.8 66.4 70.1 73.9 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 14 15 16 16 17 18 18 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 23 23 29 52 62 65 56 67 56 68 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 27. 31. 35. 40. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 20. 26. 30. 34. 38. 40. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/15/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/15/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY