* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/15/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 71 68 66 57 51 43 37 29 24 20 16 V (KT) LAND 75 74 71 68 66 57 51 43 37 29 24 20 16 V (KT) LGE mod 75 75 74 71 68 62 55 50 46 41 36 32 27 SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 16 14 14 15 13 11 12 12 16 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 72 76 103 109 99 101 113 123 146 142 139 150 N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.5 24.8 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 130 129 127 124 122 119 111 103 100 98 95 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 72 68 68 69 60 59 51 50 46 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 13 14 12 11 9 8 6 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 11 20 32 38 36 55 55 47 40 22 18 N/A 200 MB DIV 11 11 4 20 1 3 -24 -37 -21 -32 -23 0 N/A LAND (KM) 667 734 770 773 790 905 1078 1243 1400 1542 1658 1772 1885 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.4 17.4 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.0 111.9 112.9 113.9 116.3 118.9 121.3 123.4 125.2 126.6 128.1 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 9 8 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -10. -16. -25. -32. -41. -47. -51. -55. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -4. -7. -9. -18. -24. -32. -38. -46. -51. -55. -59. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/15/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/15/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY