* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 07/15/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 28 32 38 50 62 66 70 72 76 76 75 V (KT) LAND 20 23 28 32 38 50 62 66 70 72 76 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 26 28 29 30 31 SHEAR (KTS) 11 13 13 12 12 12 15 12 12 15 16 21 N/A SHEAR DIR 90 83 92 88 100 64 64 54 55 64 56 68 N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 148 149 151 148 148 146 144 140 138 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -53.7 -54.4 -53.3 -54.2 -53.1 -53.7 -52.4 -53.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 86 89 87 85 81 85 81 81 78 78 78 75 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 13 16 15 16 16 18 18 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 58 55 38 27 28 31 28 27 40 58 52 N/A 200 MB DIV 119 90 84 86 99 121 129 122 114 83 110 48 N/A LAND (KM) 534 579 629 688 684 680 715 739 768 813 862 923 961 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.6 12.3 12.9 13.2 13.4 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 94.0 94.9 96.0 97.1 99.7 102.3 104.7 106.9 108.6 109.9 111.0 112.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 12 10 8 6 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 10. 12. 12. 16. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 16. 28. 39. 45. 50. 51. 55. 54. 53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 12. 18. 30. 42. 46. 50. 52. 56. 56. 55. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 07/15/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 87.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 07/15/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED