* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/15/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 59 59 62 63 62 63 60 54 49 43 V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 59 59 62 63 62 63 60 54 49 43 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 60 60 60 60 62 64 62 59 54 50 46 SHEAR (KTS) 7 2 4 7 5 14 28 25 23 23 23 16 16 SHEAR DIR 70 171 327 347 354 332 330 323 292 259 273 292 308 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.4 26.9 27.0 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.9 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 118 115 114 113 117 122 123 119 113 107 104 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 95 94 93 97 102 104 101 96 91 88 80 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 37 43 48 54 53 57 52 50 50 50 42 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 17 17 18 22 23 23 24 23 23 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR -110 -91 -81 -55 -26 35 95 130 73 17 -34 -32 -35 200 MB DIV 9 7 43 38 15 31 31 48 -1 -34 -12 5 -10 LAND (KM) 1020 979 925 926 931 1060 1221 1359 1380 1289 1077 918 813 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.9 35.5 35.7 35.8 35.0 34.0 33.5 33.9 35.1 37.1 38.8 40.3 LONG(DEG W) 63.5 63.0 62.5 61.9 61.2 59.9 58.4 56.5 54.5 52.7 51.3 49.8 48.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 7 8 8 9 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 2 2 1 6 7 8 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -5. -10. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 0. -6. -11. -17. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/15/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/15/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY