* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/15/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 39 45 52 58 63 67 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 39 45 52 58 63 67 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 39 45 54 63 71 SHEAR (KTS) 5 6 10 14 17 18 15 7 5 7 9 9 15 SHEAR DIR 169 289 267 273 285 290 285 323 290 356 314 321 279 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 126 128 130 136 139 139 140 141 140 141 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 125 128 130 136 140 139 140 142 140 140 143 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.9 -54.5 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 64 66 58 60 56 56 52 52 50 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 16 12 17 17 3 27 18 19 19 28 39 43 200 MB DIV 8 6 -1 3 11 -3 -28 11 12 10 0 17 27 LAND (KM) 1096 1028 968 924 885 837 555 361 355 405 336 178 150 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.5 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.4 15.1 16.0 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.3 46.8 48.2 49.6 51.0 53.8 56.7 59.5 62.3 65.3 68.3 71.3 74.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 24 27 35 53 64 63 51 60 61 65 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 34. 39. 43. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 14. 20. 27. 33. 38. 42. 43. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/15/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/15/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY