* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/15/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 67 64 59 52 46 40 35 29 25 21 19 V (KT) LAND 75 71 67 64 59 52 46 40 35 29 25 21 19 V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 71 69 66 60 55 51 47 44 39 35 32 SHEAR (KTS) 21 17 13 13 16 13 8 7 11 8 8 6 9 SHEAR DIR 67 97 96 99 93 115 128 119 157 151 169 163 149 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.3 24.5 23.9 23.6 23.5 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 129 128 127 123 121 117 107 101 97 96 95 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 71 68 67 66 64 60 54 52 46 46 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 13 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 11 20 28 33 33 29 44 31 44 9 13 -14 -22 200 MB DIV 8 4 16 21 19 -11 -22 -25 -30 -25 -15 -9 -16 LAND (KM) 707 750 765 795 840 981 1116 1292 1469 1598 1703 1820 1960 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.8 112.7 113.8 114.9 117.3 119.7 122.1 124.2 126.0 127.4 128.9 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 9 8 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -24. -32. -39. -44. -49. -50. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -9. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -8. -7. -5. -6. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -8. -11. -16. -23. -29. -35. -40. -46. -50. -54. -56. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/15/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/15/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY