* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 07/15/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 34 45 53 59 62 65 68 69 69 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 34 45 53 59 62 65 68 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 30 31 32 SHEAR (KTS) 14 17 16 14 14 10 8 9 10 13 16 13 11 SHEAR DIR 87 90 83 92 87 81 58 42 57 48 77 75 83 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 146 148 149 151 147 147 146 145 143 141 137 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -54.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 88 86 82 82 84 82 79 78 76 77 79 77 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 9 9 12 11 12 11 11 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 53 47 32 26 24 27 22 19 17 22 27 24 27 200 MB DIV 88 61 59 72 62 98 115 89 97 70 41 39 38 LAND (KM) 653 696 742 801 810 801 837 864 868 923 975 1020 1104 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.5 9.0 9.6 10.4 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.4 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 93.4 94.3 95.2 96.3 97.4 99.8 102.3 104.7 106.6 108.3 109.8 111.2 112.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 13 12 12 9 8 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 4. 6. 5. 5. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 22. 30. 39. 42. 44. 46. 47. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 14. 25. 33. 39. 42. 45. 48. 49. 49. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 07/15/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 87.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 07/15/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY