* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/15/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 59 61 62 63 62 58 55 50 43 38 V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 59 61 62 63 62 58 55 50 43 38 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 60 59 59 61 63 63 61 57 52 47 43 SHEAR (KTS) 1 3 8 6 10 15 26 20 27 28 21 19 21 SHEAR DIR 120 248 281 351 11 336 336 312 282 268 303 332 257 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.8 27.0 26.8 26.1 25.4 25.0 23.5 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 112 112 113 121 123 121 115 109 106 95 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 95 92 93 94 100 102 102 98 94 91 82 75 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 43 49 54 53 56 51 52 49 48 44 45 44 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 17 20 21 23 22 21 21 21 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -87 -56 -35 6 74 128 115 61 6 -19 -22 4 200 MB DIV -2 31 39 23 25 63 1 24 17 6 -13 -14 10 LAND (KM) 936 898 866 924 984 1154 1268 1332 1318 1170 967 821 766 LAT (DEG N) 35.3 35.8 36.3 36.0 35.6 34.3 33.8 33.9 34.7 36.2 38.3 40.3 42.1 LONG(DEG W) 63.0 62.3 61.6 61.0 60.3 59.3 57.8 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 45.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 5 6 7 7 7 8 10 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 1 2 8 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 11 CX,CY: 5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -8. -15. -20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -5. -10. -17. -22. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/15/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/15/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY