* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/15/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 34 36 36 39 43 48 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 33 34 36 36 39 43 48 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 25 24 25 27 30 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 16 21 26 22 32 21 27 11 16 15 20 SHEAR DIR 297 312 295 308 317 325 336 353 9 350 338 275 294 SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 129 131 135 137 140 140 140 142 139 143 147 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 130 133 137 139 141 141 140 143 139 143 145 145 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 10 9 11 10 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 62 59 54 56 55 57 51 53 52 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 14 18 13 11 16 21 28 25 14 16 9 200 MB DIV -2 -4 -5 8 -8 -5 10 15 5 -9 -2 4 34 LAND (KM) 961 909 867 849 777 506 336 366 385 326 223 84 53 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.3 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 48.0 49.6 51.2 52.8 54.4 57.4 60.6 63.5 66.7 69.8 73.0 75.9 78.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 37 49 55 62 62 55 63 55 71 77 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -12. -17. -19. -20. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 16. 20. 25. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 14. 18. 23. 26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/15/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/15/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY