* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/15/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 63 59 55 49 42 34 30 26 24 22 20 V (KT) LAND 70 66 63 59 55 49 42 34 30 26 24 22 20 V (KT) LGE mod 70 68 65 63 60 55 50 46 42 37 33 30 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 11 12 14 15 10 12 14 8 9 7 9 10 SHEAR DIR 81 91 89 80 107 132 131 149 164 140 181 155 166 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 25.9 25.6 24.9 24.1 23.8 23.6 23.6 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 128 128 127 123 120 112 103 100 98 97 97 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 67 69 61 57 50 49 44 45 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 36 37 35 29 43 37 43 33 13 10 -19 -24 200 MB DIV 12 0 7 12 12 -12 -34 -22 -33 -23 1 -25 -10 LAND (KM) 757 779 814 864 929 1058 1235 1414 1579 1726 1875 1999 2094 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.8 113.8 115.0 116.2 118.6 121.1 123.4 125.5 127.5 129.4 130.9 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 8 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -19. -27. -34. -39. -42. -44. -45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. -4. -5. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -11. -15. -21. -28. -36. -40. -44. -46. -48. -50. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/15/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/15/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY