* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 07/15/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 33 43 52 57 62 65 67 68 66 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 33 43 52 57 62 65 67 68 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 33 SHEAR (KTS) 15 17 18 17 11 10 7 11 9 11 11 14 14 SHEAR DIR 90 84 92 95 92 69 36 34 59 84 79 116 91 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 146 148 151 150 147 148 146 144 141 137 136 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.0 -54.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 88 82 82 83 83 80 78 74 76 74 74 69 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 55 35 33 26 27 22 18 12 19 24 30 28 32 200 MB DIV 61 60 55 48 52 96 104 106 71 59 28 19 27 LAND (KM) 658 680 708 739 726 711 757 774 824 884 979 1084 1130 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.1 9.3 10.0 10.7 11.5 12.0 12.5 12.8 13.4 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 94.4 95.3 96.5 97.6 100.3 103.0 105.4 107.4 109.2 111.1 113.0 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 11 12 13 14 13 11 10 9 9 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 4. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 18. 28. 34. 40. 44. 45. 45. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 23. 32. 37. 42. 45. 47. 48. 46. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 07/15/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 07/15/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY