* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/15/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 61 61 62 65 63 63 57 55 49 46 V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 61 61 62 65 63 63 57 55 49 46 V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 59 58 58 60 63 65 65 63 59 55 51 SHEAR (KTS) 5 12 11 7 10 20 16 15 13 24 10 12 21 SHEAR DIR 231 264 292 318 322 322 289 268 241 253 279 289 270 SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.5 26.9 26.5 25.8 25.2 24.7 23.1 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 114 111 109 111 112 118 122 118 112 107 104 93 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 91 90 92 93 98 101 99 96 92 89 81 74 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -54.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 49 52 54 56 55 52 48 51 52 49 50 46 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 21 22 22 22 20 22 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -96 -66 -37 -8 41 122 158 133 116 65 36 91 100 200 MB DIV 22 36 20 22 38 36 33 -6 48 -12 3 0 20 LAND (KM) 850 841 835 896 958 1127 1267 1312 1266 1111 963 841 766 LAT (DEG N) 36.2 36.5 36.7 36.3 35.9 34.7 34.0 34.2 35.3 36.8 38.6 40.6 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 61.9 61.3 60.8 60.2 59.0 57.4 55.6 53.5 51.2 48.9 46.9 45.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 6 7 7 7 9 11 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 5 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 4. 5. 0. -2. -8. -12. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 3. -3. -5. -11. -14. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/15/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/15/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY