* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/15/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 56 53 50 43 35 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 56 53 50 43 35 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 58 55 53 48 44 40 36 31 28 24 22 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 17 14 14 11 12 15 11 16 15 16 10 SHEAR DIR 85 72 92 98 111 127 137 173 178 164 172 178 205 SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.6 24.9 23.9 23.5 23.4 23.5 23.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 128 126 124 121 113 102 97 97 98 99 98 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 67 61 59 54 51 49 45 44 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 12 10 9 7 6 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 40 39 41 40 40 52 34 45 23 30 13 4 -11 200 MB DIV 8 4 16 7 0 -23 -21 -14 -16 -25 -12 -13 0 LAND (KM) 769 815 877 947 1022 1159 1377 1546 1687 1870 2087 2192 2035 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 114.0 115.2 116.5 117.7 120.3 123.2 125.5 127.4 129.6 132.1 134.1 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 10 10 11 10 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -21. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -15. -23. -31. -38. -44. -51. -53. -53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -12. -15. -22. -30. -37. -43. -48. -55. -56. -56. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/15/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/15/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY