* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 07/15/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 47 51 56 58 58 58 57 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 39 47 51 56 58 58 58 57 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 23 25 26 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 19 16 13 14 13 8 11 11 21 19 17 15 SHEAR DIR 63 69 69 60 54 51 28 60 57 75 89 90 87 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 148 151 151 149 149 146 143 140 137 134 132 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 81 82 84 82 81 79 74 72 73 72 69 67 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 40 39 34 31 24 24 12 24 25 39 35 48 55 200 MB DIV 48 31 30 41 56 82 62 51 48 34 37 15 14 LAND (KM) 614 631 667 634 616 623 642 653 724 783 861 968 987 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.1 10.5 11.4 12.3 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.9 96.0 97.4 98.8 101.6 104.0 106.2 108.0 109.5 111.0 112.8 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 13 14 14 14 12 10 8 7 8 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 25. 31. 36. 37. 36. 37. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 27. 31. 36. 38. 38. 38. 37. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 07/15/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 07/15/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY