* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/16/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 59 59 60 61 60 56 51 45 37 28 V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 59 59 60 61 60 56 51 45 37 28 V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 58 57 57 59 63 65 64 61 56 49 42 SHEAR (KTS) 12 8 10 8 14 14 8 10 14 24 37 49 62 SHEAR DIR 285 302 285 301 298 299 261 244 235 254 277 268 267 SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.6 26.6 26.0 25.3 24.9 23.2 21.3 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 108 110 113 119 119 114 108 106 94 85 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 90 89 91 94 100 100 96 93 91 82 75 70 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -55.1 -54.5 -54.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 57 61 58 55 51 51 53 48 44 40 51 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 20 20 20 20 19 17 15 15 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -35 -2 40 76 150 170 139 94 71 27 26 47 200 MB DIV 22 17 16 34 47 40 40 11 21 20 -14 9 16 LAND (KM) 818 839 862 925 989 1167 1314 1298 1113 932 836 812 848 LAT (DEG N) 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.3 35.8 34.6 34.1 34.9 36.7 38.6 40.5 42.5 44.6 LONG(DEG W) 61.8 61.2 60.6 60.2 59.7 58.3 55.9 54.0 52.3 50.1 47.2 44.7 42.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 6 7 9 9 10 12 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -20. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -4. -9. -15. -23. -32. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/16/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/16/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY