* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL942008 07/16/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 30 32 32 33 34 39 43 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 30 32 32 33 34 39 43 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 24 22 20 19 19 19 19 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 22 27 26 37 24 33 23 27 25 28 23 SHEAR DIR 269 286 302 312 320 335 340 340 325 320 294 296 291 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 138 140 140 139 139 141 140 144 150 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 140 141 140 139 139 139 138 143 148 150 148 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.3 -54.8 -54.8 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 10 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 62 63 59 54 56 60 56 55 50 53 51 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 15 17 21 20 15 27 22 21 6 -7 -27 200 MB DIV -6 -3 -10 -1 0 11 17 13 2 23 25 22 21 LAND (KM) 803 798 720 586 467 336 411 322 234 56 10 33 116 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.8 14.4 15.1 16.0 17.1 18.2 19.5 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 51.8 53.3 54.8 56.3 57.7 60.6 63.2 65.9 68.5 71.5 74.5 77.5 80.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 13 14 13 14 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 42 50 58 63 63 62 53 71 62 81 92 92 82 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -10. -17. -22. -26. -28. -29. -29. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 15. 19. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 14. 18. 21. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008 INVEST 07/16/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008 INVEST 07/16/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY