* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ELIDA EP062008 07/16/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 60 57 53 44 34 26 18 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 60 57 53 44 34 26 18 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 60 58 56 51 46 40 34 29 26 23 21 SHEAR (KTS) 13 16 15 15 12 16 18 13 15 13 8 8 11 SHEAR DIR 66 81 108 125 137 146 168 172 162 199 201 214 185 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.5 24.5 23.7 23.3 23.4 23.7 23.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 128 125 123 119 109 100 95 97 99 99 99 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 69 61 58 56 48 48 44 41 36 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 9 8 6 5 6 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 43 43 50 41 42 33 17 25 8 14 -16 200 MB DIV 4 7 -1 -1 -15 -43 -27 -23 -19 -12 -15 -12 0 LAND (KM) 829 876 938 1013 1067 1243 1461 1634 1806 1995 2215 2091 1982 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.3 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.9 116.1 117.4 118.6 121.3 124.1 126.6 128.9 131.1 133.5 135.1 136.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 11 10 11 10 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -20. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. -10. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -17. -27. -35. -43. -47. -53. -53. -53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -5. -8. -12. -21. -31. -39. -47. -50. -55. -55. -55. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP062008 ELIDA 07/16/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062008 ELIDA 07/16/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY