* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 07/16/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 47 54 59 62 60 60 58 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 47 54 59 62 60 60 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 32 35 38 40 41 41 41 40 SHEAR (KTS) 15 10 12 12 10 10 15 12 13 15 12 12 11 SHEAR DIR 66 39 47 36 30 10 20 35 60 89 97 86 105 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 150 151 151 150 148 141 138 134 130 126 121 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 83 84 82 80 80 77 70 73 74 72 67 63 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 41 38 35 28 25 25 24 31 42 40 53 63 64 200 MB DIV 48 41 63 81 92 69 51 31 44 7 0 -1 -10 LAND (KM) 600 621 602 565 536 509 490 514 572 674 741 779 898 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.8 10.3 10.9 11.4 12.7 13.8 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 94.1 95.4 96.7 98.1 99.5 102.0 104.2 106.4 108.3 110.2 112.0 114.2 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 14 14 15 15 13 12 11 10 9 10 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -1. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 30. 36. 39. 36. 34. 32. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 29. 34. 37. 35. 35. 33. 30. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 07/16/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 07/16/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY