* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * BERTHA AL022008 07/16/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 54 54 56 57 56 52 49 43 41 35 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 54 54 56 57 56 52 49 43 41 35 V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 52 52 53 57 61 63 62 59 54 48 43 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 10 13 15 12 13 9 12 24 30 38 41 SHEAR DIR 304 292 299 312 315 292 261 221 280 262 265 268 263 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 25.9 26.2 26.5 27.0 26.9 25.9 25.2 24.6 23.5 21.1 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 111 115 117 123 123 114 108 103 96 86 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 90 92 95 98 103 104 99 93 87 83 77 71 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -55.0 -54.8 -55.6 -56.2 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 55 59 57 52 50 49 46 48 44 44 43 43 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 18 19 20 19 17 16 13 13 12 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -27 0 41 65 97 150 143 107 65 34 -11 -35 0 200 MB DIV 26 6 25 36 44 34 -3 21 -23 8 6 28 35 LAND (KM) 849 889 930 1010 1090 1254 1350 1288 1068 927 892 864 970 LAT (DEG N) 36.6 36.4 36.1 35.5 34.9 33.8 33.7 35.1 37.2 39.0 40.2 42.6 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 61.2 60.8 60.4 59.9 59.4 58.1 56.1 53.7 51.1 48.7 46.6 43.8 40.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 6 7 7 8 10 14 14 11 13 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 6 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. -1. -3. -9. -11. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -20. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008 BERTHA 07/16/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/16/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY